The application of memory: a theory of road safety.
Adapted from ‘On Intelligence’ by Jeff Hawkins.

Humans, like other mammals, have a part of the brain called the neo-cortex, which other animals, such as reptiles, do not. This is the most recent part of the brain to develop and part of its role is to store and recall memory. Our development from childhood is the result of memorising past experiences via our senses and applying this knowledge to current situations. Our ability to make predictions based on the recollection and application of past experience to a current context is the very definition of intelligence.
Going about our day-to-day lives is possible because of the predictability of the world around us, which allows us to make assumptions on the consequences of our actions. It can be as unconscious as the fact that when you sit on a chair it will support your weight or that gravity will always act downwards. Our ability to recall memories and apply this knowledge to ever changing situations defines how we interact with our surroundings.
Navigating the public realm, whether on foot, as a driver or by any other means, is no different. Our capability to accurately predict the consequences of our own actions along with those with whom we share the public realm are central to our ability to avoid harm. It is in those situations where these predictions fail us that we are most likely to be involved in a road traffic collision and sustain injury.
We have a mountain of data on road safety. Road traffic collision data is probably the largest, most accurate data set in the world. But we don’t have a theory that explains this data. The answer isn’t more data, what we need is a robust theory. The reason that we don’t have a theory is that we currently have an intuitively, strongly held, but incorrect assumption that prevents us from seeing the answer. We believe that the behaviour of people in the public realm is a constant, that people do not adapt their behaviour to the environment around them. And that by intervening in the public realm we can manage peoples behaviour. But the crucial oversight with this approach is that it ignores our ability to adapt our behaviour to maximise the potential benefits and minimise the potential losses of our actions through risk taking.
Going about our day-to-day lives is possible because of the predictability of the world around us, which allows us to make assumptions on the consequences of our actions. It can be as unconscious as the fact that when you sit on a chair it will support your weight or that gravity will always act downwards. Our ability to recall memories and apply this knowledge to ever changing situations defines how we interact with our surroundings.
Navigating the public realm, whether on foot, as a driver or by any other means, is no different. Our capability to accurately predict the consequences of our own actions along with those with whom we share the public realm are central to our ability to avoid harm. It is in those situations where these predictions fail us that we are most likely to be involved in a road traffic collision and sustain injury.
We have a mountain of data on road safety. Road traffic collision data is probably the largest, most accurate data set in the world. But we don’t have a theory that explains this data. The answer isn’t more data, what we need is a robust theory. The reason that we don’t have a theory is that we currently have an intuitively, strongly held, but incorrect assumption that prevents us from seeing the answer. We believe that the behaviour of people in the public realm is a constant, that people do not adapt their behaviour to the environment around them. And that by intervening in the public realm we can manage peoples behaviour. But the crucial oversight with this approach is that it ignores our ability to adapt our behaviour to maximise the potential benefits and minimise the potential losses of our actions through risk taking.